Thursday, November 10, 2011

$2000? Naw, take $200

So I've continued to run poorly this month but am somehow still in the black so it could be worse. I would be be beating the games at a pretty good rate if I ran at expected value (EV) but it is what it is and I'll continue to try and play well and not worry about what I can't control.

One thing that I want to make clear is that I've said many times in the past that the "EV" stat is not really a good indicator of how a player is "running" and I still believe that even when I vent about running below EV. I don't think that EV is at all an accurate way of measuring how a player is running due to the fact that it can't account for cooler situations or situations where most of the money is already in the middle before a big suckout occurs on a sequential street. For example, I may get it in with AA vs. KK in late position 4 times in 1 day and hold each time and think I'm the best player in the world when I'm obviously just running hot. Furthermore, I may get 90% of my money in the middle with AA vs. KK on a 224r flop and then have to get the last of it in on a K turn and my EV will tell me that I was supposed to lose. Because of these two factors I don't think that a player can claim to be running good or bad based on EV alone, although it definitely provides some kind of base to work off of. What EV will tell you is that regardless of how one thinks that they are running, EV will tell you how much money you SHOULD HAVE WON based on the mathematical percentages. All I'm getting at is that it's fair for me (or anyone) to be upset after running below EV because I should in fact have $1800 more in my account if I ran at expectation, although it's not fair for me to claim that I'm running bad based on this information alone. I make that claim based on what I feel is an honest assessment of my own situation after taking into account the aforementioned factors as well. Obviously it's just an opinion rather than fact.

With that said, here are a couple of not so fun hands from my session today:

Poker Stars $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP1: $200.00
MP2: $310.45
CO: $105.95
BTN: $200.00
SB: $135.55
Hero (BB): $203.35
UTG: $636.35
UTG+1: $142.20
UTG+2: $235.50

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BB with A of spades Q of hearts
4 folds, MP2 raises to $4, 1 fold, BTN calls $4, SB calls $3, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, SB raises to $82, Hero raises to $203.35, SB calls $53.55 all in

Flop: ($279.10) 9 of spades 6 of diamonds 2 of spades (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($279.10) 5 of clubs (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($279.10) T of diamonds (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $279.10
SB shows T of clubs T of hearts
Hero shows A of spades Q of hearts
SB wins $276.10
(Rake: $3.00)

This was probably the most tilting hand of the day only because I knew the villain can almost NEVER have me dominated here but it's going to be a flip nearly every time. Even though I have no fold equity, after putting in $18 plus all of the dead money out there it seems like folding shouldn't really even be considered. This is just a spot where I feel that I clearly played the hand better than the opponent and "deserved" to win the flip since that's the best that they can hope for lol.

Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players

UTG: $100.00
UTG+1: $127.85
MP: $91.50
Hero (CO): $100.00
BTN: $126.35
SB: $74.50
BB: $46.20

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with A of hearts K of spades
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $9, 2 folds, Hero raises to $21, BTN raises to $61, Hero raises to $100, BTN calls $39

Flop: ($201.50) T of spades 7 of spades 6 of hearts (2 players)

Turn: ($201.50) A of clubs (2 players)

River: ($201.50) 4 of hearts (2 players)

Final Pot: $201.50
Hero shows A of hearts K of spades
BTN shows 7 of diamonds 6 of diamonds
BTN wins $198.50
(Rake: $3.00)

Scratch that, this hand was more tilting that the last. I don't really care if you want to be a playmaster (because if you look up the stats for people that playmaster, they are almost always losing players or break-even at best and this guy was no exception) but when you get caught it would be nice if the best hand could hold. Oh well.

Poker Stars $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players

MP1: $107.50
MP2: $142.00
CO: $122.40
BTN: $77.80
SB: $158.55
Hero (BB): $116.60
UTG: $114.55
UTG+1: $178.00

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with K of hearts A of spades
UTG raises to $3, UTG+1 calls $3, 4 folds, SB raises to $14, Hero raises to $116.60, 2 folds, SB calls $102.60

Flop: ($239.20) 6 of diamonds 6 of clubs 7 of clubs (2 players)

Turn: ($239.20) 3 of spades (2 players)

River: ($239.20) 2 of diamonds (2 players)

Final Pot: $239.20
SB shows J of hearts K of clubs
Hero shows K of hearts A of spades
Hero wins $236.20
(Rake: $3.00)

Despite many tough beats, I still managed to turn a $400ish profit today due in big part to hands like these where I'm pretty much gifted some big pots from some unknowns.

In other news, I'm stoked to be going to Victoria for Remembrance Day Long Weekend! I'm going over on a ferry tomorrow afternoon with Ben and we're staying at his awesome apartment close to downtown. There's several other people that I know that will be over there, including Miles, so I'm sure we'll meet up at some point and party. Unfortunately, I've agreed to do Movember this year with a few people and am looking as unattractive as will be an epic challenge to woo an islander this weekend with my whiskers but we'll see what happens. It will be much tougher than last weekend, where I met a girl on Friday and before I could even use my TV line on her she used it on me lol. That almost never happens. Anyways, hope you all have a good weekend!

gl at the tables!


  1. What's the TV line?

  2. lol, mo is absolutely terrible...i've yet to see a worse one actually and that's saying a lot considering like 90% of guys have a mustache right now. i'll prob put up a pic soon haha.

    the TV line is quite simple-you just ask the person if they want to go watch some TV or a's just a harmless way of asking to go home with someone. it's all i got.

  3. lol i didnt think 100nl was this soft.