Friday, January 24, 2014

Frosty's "Think Out Loud" Mistake Thread

I wanted to make this thread because I've been making far too many mistakes at the tables so far this year. I don't know how long I'll keep updating it but until I feel like I've got things under control in terms of playing "correctly," I'd like to use this space to post hand histories and try to figure out how I could have played each spot better.

I've been getting torched in EV this month and aside from the bad beats, I've ran AK into AA enough times against shorties that I should prob consider folding at some point but won't :) Anyways, I can't control the EV side of things but I can control my play! Looking over my sessions today, I did play EV positive but lost a few buyins in reality and a lot of money could have been saved had I simply played better. I want to work towards playing "flawlessly" in my own mind. I'd like to end a session, or better yet a day, thinking that I made no major mistakes and didn't leave much money out there. I'm not saying that I'm aiming to play absolutely perfect or that I'm going to start thinking that I'm the best player in the world or anything...just like I said, I'd like to play what I would consider mistake free poker or at least close to it. Feel free to chime in on any/every hand if you have your own opinions...even if you don't play these stakes it really doesn't matter :)

Jan 23

1. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed)

Hero (CO) ($100)
Button ($40)
SB ($42.21)
BB ($40)
UTG ($98.50)
MP1 ($106.30)
MP2 ($102.46)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
2 folds, MP2 raises to $3, Hero raises to $9.50, 3 folds, MP2 raises to $22, Hero raises to $100 (All-In), MP2 calls $78

Flop: ($201.50) 2, 10, 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: ($201.50) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($201.50) 6 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $201.50 | Rake: $2.80

Results below:
MP2 had K, K (one pair, Kings).
Hero had Q, Q (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: MP2 won $198.70

Mistake: 3bet/5bet shoving pre
Solution: 3bet/fold or flat pre
Why: This was against a 22/12 regfish villain that has a reasonably small 4-bet in MP but an overall low fold to 3bet across the board. I think that 3betting is fine since this villain will call OOP with a lot of hands that I beat but probably has a 4bet/calling range of QQ+/AK, heavily weighted towards AA and KK. Even Though they're in the HJ and I'm in the cutoff, I think stacking with QQ is a little too light against this type of player and in fact, I told myself to fold and then clicked the call button. You know how it is. If we were both one position to the left (ie CO vs. BTN), this would be an auto-stackoff pre and but it is, flatting pre is probably best to avoid being 4-bet bluffed (not likely here) and to more importantly keep his worse hands in play.
Badness Scale (1-10): 3. This one really is a borderline cooler even with the above mentioned explanation. The villain's 4bet wasn't completely small and AK should always be in their range, possibly along with JJ so I won't lose too much sleep over it but overall I think flatting is probably best.

2. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($100)
MP1 ($101.44)
MP2 ($103.62)
MP3 ($56.13)
CO ($101.08)
Hero (Button) ($100)
SB ($42)
BB ($105.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
5 folds, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 4, K, 9 (2 players)
CO bets $4, Hero raises to $14, CO raises to $49, Hero raises to $97 (All-In), CO calls $48

Turn: ($201.50) Q (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($201.50) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $201.50 | Rake: $2.80

Results below:
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
CO had 8, A (flush, Ace high).
Outcome: CO won $198.70

Mistake: Raising the flop and stacking off
Solution: Call flop
Why: This was against a 26/18 unknown, assumed fishier player. I think that with top set, or even middle set, I can get the money in feeling pretty good here. Even with bottom set I think it's very close, as it's hard to know what kind of unknown we're playing against here...if it's the kind that stacks off with top pair every time, we're going to be printing money. However, straight up fish don't usually have such aggressive stats, which leads me to think villain is sort of a reg-fish or at least has an idea about how to play the game. Against a range of any reasonable player that wants to get the money in here, we're pretty much alwasy up against a flush, or worse a bigger set, or the Asx, with the range weighted heavily towards flushes I would say. If we're up against a flush, we still have a decent amount of equity but we're pretty much toast to KK/99. We also make a ton of hands that we beat fold to a flop raise that might otherwise double or triple barrel. On this runout I'm still losing a bunch of money since I doubt that I would fold by the river but I think against an overall Cbetting range and considering the range of hands that the villain will get the money in with here, flatting serves me better.
Badness Scale (1-10): 2. Especially readless, this is basically a cooler but as I stated, I think that I like flatting more than raising/getting it in. Even if the board does pair, I doubt the villain ever slows down with the flush so I doubt we lose much/if any value.

3. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €2.00 BB (9 handed)

Button (€200)
Hero (SB) (€200)
BB (€200)
UTG (€200)
UTG+1 (€123.35)
MP1 (€221.88)
MP2 (€200)
MP3 (€203)
CO (€92.11)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
5 folds, CO raises to €5, 1 fold, Hero raises to €14, 1 fold, CO calls €9

Flop: (€30) 9, 4, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets €16, CO raises to €78.11 (All-In), Hero calls €62.11

Turn: (€186.22) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (€186.22) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: €186.22 | Rake: €2.15

Results below:
Hero had 7, 7 (full house, nines over sevens).
CO had A, A (full house, Aces over nines).
Outcome: CO won €184.07

Mistake: 3bet shoving the flop
Solution: bet-fold flop
Why: Again, another borderline cooler spot and all of these hands might seem super nitty but that's just how the games seem to play. I think that a 3bet pre is good here against a typical short-stacker, even though their CO steal was only 19%. I could probably even find a fold if they jammed pre-flop but I think that calling would be fine too. As played though, I really don't think there are enough hands in the villains range that I fact I'm really struggling to think of any besides flush draws and even those have great equity against my hand. I think that I do need to Cbet, as the villain could be flatting lots of suited broadway hands/suited aces and I want to deny equity and take the pot down right there. Also, for balancing reasoning it makes a lot of sense as I would Cbet this flop with my entire range most of the time. I think that I just need to fold to their jam and be pretty happy about it. I don't even need to worry about being exploited because lots of the time I will have a hand strong enough to call with (ie TT+).
Badness Scale (1-10): 5. It's no secret that shorties like to trap pre-flop in position, especially with AA. In reality, basically nobody seems to straight up bluff these spots with air or underpairs and if they do, they will get crushed when I have a stronger portion of my range. Fold!

4. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed)

BB ($192.86)
UTG ($128)
UTG+1 ($88.96)
MP1 ($80)
MP2 ($208.68)
CO ($203)
Hero (Button) ($241.67)
SB ($83.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
5 folds, Hero raises to $4.56, 1 fold, BB calls $2.56

Flop: ($10.12) Q, 4, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5.76, BB raises to $14, Hero calls $8.24

Turn: ($38.12) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $19, Hero calls $19

River: ($76.12) J (2 players)
BB bets $46, Hero calls $46

Total pot: $168.12 | Rake: $2.80

Results below:
Hero didn't show A, A (one pair, Aces).
BB had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: BB won $165.32

Mistake: Calling River
Solution: Fold or shove river, consider folding earlier too
Why: This is against another shorty that ran up a stack I think. The flop is so dry that there really isn't much merit to raising...I think we fold out everything we beat and there aren't many scare cards to come. I think that folding is too weak at this point, I'd hope that villain is c/ring a Q for value or maybe turning a mid-pair into a bluff. Hard to put QQ in their range but I guess 44/22 are out there. Not much changes on the turn and since we have the Ah, we could potentially bluff a heart river so I still think that I need to call. Sizing is fairly small as well. On the river, QJ got there, some backdoor flush got there and sets still beat us. I'm not sure if the villain would keep firing with Qx here but I doubt it. I think that it's probably a losing call in this spot. I really wanted to shove but I was concerned that the villain wasn't quite deep enough or even capable of folding a set. The shove would be a bit of a merge because we could have the best hand if the villain did have Qx or got tricky with KK but mostly it would be a bluff trying to rep the nut flush and get them to fold a set, 2pair or straight. In hindsight, I don't think there are enough players capable of folding sets, especially not with a lot of money left behind and I should just fold the river.
Badness Scale (1-10): 6. I think the river call is pretty bad. I just don't see this being a bluff hardly ever. It might seem stupid to call the flop c/r and the river bet then fold when we still have an overpair to the board but there are a bunch of different situations that could have played out on the river. For example, the river could have bricked off, villain could have checked and weighted his range more heavily towards Qx and we could have value-bet our hand.

There are a few more hands that I think that I misplayed a bit today but they're all even more minor than those so I think that I'll leave it at that. Month:

Despite all the pots that I've been losing there have been a lot of well played ones as well. My EV line is actually trending upwards and that's not even taking into account most of these hands that I've posted where I've had little to no EV at all lol. Hopefully I can start playing more solidly and post some better results by the end of Jan because there's still a bunch of poker left to be played. I'll have a lot of poker over the next little while too because I messed up my ankle at ice hockey tonight. I was heading in on a partial break-away as I just edged out their player for the puck. He was right behind me as I was skating down the left side of the ice towards their net...I went to cut in to my right and tossed a backhand on net but their player was right on me and he didn't push me or anything but my feet came out from under me and I started sliding towards the boards at full speed. My skates were first to hit the board and my ankle buckled right in...I'm not sure how serious it is but it feels like a sprain. Took this pic as I was icing it in the locker room:
You can see how swollen it looks. Not sure how long it will take to heal up, hopefully not long but right now I can't really put any pressure on it. Could be glued to my desk for a little while :( Am having people over tomorrow too, oh well. That's it for now,
gl at the tables!


  1. Hand 1: No fan of flatting a regfish ip. 3b for sure but fold the 4b
    Hand 2: If you're reraising hand 3 op, why don't you reraise this hand ip? Hero would probably call and all the money would have gone in anyway but you'd feel much better about it if you're stacking off with bottom set in a 3b pot. As played > raise / fold flop
    Hand 3: 3b pf isn't bad but I'd consider calling or even folding a small pp op against a shortstacker. If called > cbet/fold
    Hand 4: No stats on villain but folding the flop or turn would be bad. He could be doing this with AQ, KQ, QJ, Q10 or even with JJ/1010. I don't think he's betting the turn with JJ/1010 though. Crying fold on the river. Shoving the river would be throwing money away. He's never ever folding here.

    Great site btw!

    1. 1: Yeah I do generally agee, especially because we are very close to late position the villains opening range is probably wider than if we were in EP and may call with more bad hands etc.

      2: That's a good point, I did consider 3betting pre but never talked about it. In this spot, it probably would have been a good idea becasue the players behind me are actually pretty squeeze-happy.

      I do think that 3betting here is a much higher variance play though. We don't know if the fish will spazz 4bet a lot and make us fold and if we don't flop a set, we probably still have to Cbet most flops anyways because the fish will still have such a wide range. I tend to look to setmine in these spots if I can but perhaps my way of thinking here could be off.

      3: I don't really have much of a flatting range out of the SB at all. I think that shorties are stealing enough that I'm going to get folds a lot of the time and could even stack this pre against most players. I think I'd fold it before I flatted but yeah, agree as played.

      4: Yep, pretty much my thinking.

      Appreciate the reply!

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